TWO WEEKS TO GO – And I'm impressed by how close so many races are, and by how high the initial turnout of early voters is.  I don't think anything is in the bag for anyone, but the basic scenario of the GOP holding the Senate and the Dems taking the House seems reasonable, if nothing more. 

In Rasmussen today, the president rises to 48%, from the 47% he's been stuck at the last three days.  Statistically, that means nothing.

In the Senate, RealClearPolitics is predicting 50 safe GOP seats, 44 safe Dem seats, 6 toss-ups.

In the House, RCP is predicting 205 safe Dem seats, 200 safe GOP seats, 30 toss-ups.

The House is particularly intriguing.  Even if the Dems take it, their majority might be so small as to be almost moot.  Yes, they'd have committee chairmanships, with the power to investigate, but there are still enough moderate Dems to make passing a radical agenda very iffy.  And it's unlikely that all Dems would line up behind impeachment of the president or Justice Kavanaugh.

But, in the end, no one knows anything.  Turnout, turnout, turnout.

October 23,  2018